Oscar season is in full force, so it's time to take a look at who the leading candidates are for one of the top categories: Best Actor. While there are still a handful of titles waiting to premiere (such as Clint Eastwood's crime drama The Mule), most of the expected contenders have already had their theatrical runs or screened for critics. As such, the awards race has started to come into clearer focus over the past few months. Of course, there's still plenty of time for things to sort out before the Academy Awards ceremony in February 2019, but cinephiles have a better idea how things could play out, making it somewhat easy to make predictions.
Best Actor is typically a blood bath, and this year is no exception. Currently, there's no "Gary Oldman in Darkest Hour" type of performance that's the clear frontrunner, leaving things wide open as numerous actors jockey for position. The star power on display in the category is truly impressive, and it will be very exciting to see how things play out as the season goes along. Similar to what we did with Best Picture earlier this year, we're listing the biggest contenders for Best Actor here.
Ethan Hawke - First Reformed
Paul Schrader's drama premiered in U.S. theaters as a counter-programming option this summer, but definitely stayed in the minds of awards voters. The film follows Toller (Hawke), a New York minister dealing with questions about faith and morality as he works at a church. First Reformed recently got a much-needed boost when it was named one of the National Board of Review's 10 best films of the year. Schrader (scribe of classics like Taxi Driver and Raging Bull) has already earned multiple accolades for his original screenplay, which impressively deals with complex subject matter. He isn't the only one from First Reformed walking away with hardware, as Hawke is picking up key notices.
Hawke has already won Best Actor trophies from the Gotham Awards and the New York Film Critics Circle, the first necessary steps to building a case for an Oscar nomination. The actor also has a fairly lengthy history with the Academy, picking up four nominations throughout his career. Two of those were for screenwriting, but the actors branch made sure to recognize Hawke's work in Training Day and Boyhood. He's built up an impressive filmography over the years, and Oscar voters may want to nominate him again. And if he keeps doing well in the precursors, Best Actor could be his to lose.
Christian Bale - Vice
Bale already won Best Supporting Actor for his performance as Dicky Eklund in David O. Russell's The Fighter, and now he could be in line for his first Best Actor win for Adam McKay's Vice. In the upcoming dark comedy, Bale plays former U.S. vice president Dick Cheney, and in just the trailer alone, he's deserving of a nomination. As has become typical for Bale, he completely threw himself into his craft, pulling off yet another incredible physical transformation. His Cheney is eerily authentic, nailing the politician's appearance and mannerisms. Even those who know it's Bale in makeup do double-takes at the footage.
Related: The Vice Trailer Song (Accidentally) Tells Dick Cheney's Story
Vice opens in theaters on Christmas, and full reviews are embargoed until the premiere gets closer. However, the film has screened for some guild members and critics, and right now the early word is that the film (and Bale's turn) lives up to its on-paper potential. Unsurprisingly, Bale is one of the definite standouts in the loaded ensemble, carrying Vice with one of his best outings. The fact the actor is excellent shouldn't come as a surprise, and at this point, it feels like he's a shoo-in for a nomination. Once other awards bodies start weighing in, he may be able to become the clear favorite.
Viggo Mortensen - Green Book
In Peter Farrelly's real-life dramedy, Mortensen plays Tony "Lip" Vallelonga, an Italian-American bouncer who takes a job driving African-American classical pianist Dr. Donald Shirley (Mahershala Ali) through the deep South for a musical tour in the 1960s. Green Book became one of the year's biggest Oscar surprises when it took home the People's Choice Award at the Toronto International Film Festival, basically guaranteeing it a Best Picture nomination. Some critics have taken issue with Green Book's conventional handling of its subject matter and themes, but the general consensus is that it's an entertaining, feel-good story for older moviegoers. It even won the NBR's Best Film prize.
Mortensen was also a winner at NBR, securing the Best Actor award. Indeed, the performances by Mortensen and Ali are a primary reason why Green Book works as well as it does. A larger than life character, Tony Lip easily could have amounted to nothing more than just a walking stereotype, but Mortensen lends his natural skill and gravitas to the role. Balancing the comedic and dramatic aspects of the film with grace, the two-time Oscar nominee never loses sight of Tony Lip's underlying heart and humanity, making him a fun and interesting individual to be around. And like Bale, Mortensen went the extra mile and altered his physical appearance, transforming into the role.
Bradley Cooper - A Star is Born
Cooper's remake of the classic musical drama is one of the darlings of awards season so far, earning widespread critical praise and $191.7 million at the domestic box office. The leading Best Picture contender found tremendous success with NBR, winning Best Director (Cooper), Best Actress (Lady Gaga) and Best Supporting Actor (Sam Elliott) and earning a spot on the 10 best list. A Star is Born actually tied the record for most wins in NBR history, matching the cumulative total (four) by Best Picture nominees Up in the Air and The Social Network. This is just the beginning for Star, which is expected to do very well as awards season continues.
Related: A Star is Born's Ending Is Bad (And Always Has Been)
With three acting nods to his name already (his last came in 2014 for American Sniper), Cooper should add to his total this year. His gritty turn as country-rocker Jackson Maine was hailed as one of his best, with critics feeling it was appropriately charismatic and sympathetic. Cooper did a fantastic job portraying Jack's self-destructive nature, grounding it in a way that felt honest and genuine. Impressively, the actor also performed his own live vocals for the film's standout concert sequences - a product of 18 months of training. The Oscars have a definite soft spot for old school Hollywood musicals (La La Land earned 14 nominations), so even if Cooper doesn't win Best Actor, he'll most likely be one of the thespians in contention.
Ryan Gosling - First Man
Speaking of La La Land, Gosling received a Best Actor nod under Damien Chazelle's direction for that film, and the two were hoping to work awards magic again with the Neil Armstrong biopic, First Man. Unfortunately, the drama's Oscar prospects have taken a nosedive ever since it opened in theaters. Failing to escape the shadow of blockbusters Venom and A Star is Born, First Man floundered at the box office, totaling just $44.5 million domestically. With Chazelle demonstrating his evolving mastery behind the camera, First Man should do well in the technical categories, but it's no longer the Best Picture threat some thought it might be after the early fall festivals.
How that impacts Gosling in the Best Actor race remains to be seen. His performance as Armstrong is very nuanced and subdued, channeling the astronaut's introverted personality onscreen. This contributed to the common complaint First Man is too cold and emotionally distant to truly connect with wide audiences, and there may not be enough voters onboard with Gosling's turn. It's not the typical "showy" acting the Oscars tend to go for, as there isn't a clear scene where Gosling essentially seals a nomination. His work in First Man is great for the film's purposes, though there's a chance it isn't enough to get him across the finish line. Even if Gosling does get his third nomination, he'll have to settle for the participation award.
Page 2: Rami Malek, Clint Eastwood, and More
Rami Malek - Bohemian Rhapsody
A surefire way for an actor to launch themselves into the awards race is to portray a beloved historical figure. Enter Rami Malek, who embodied late Queen font man Freddie Mercury in Bohemian Rhapsody, which became a strong box office hit. The film itself earned mixed reviews from critics, but Malek was universally praised as its strongest aspect. Carrying himself with the necessary swagger and bravado, the Mr. Robot star is the true MVP of the piece, severely outshining the rest of the ensemble (to the movie's detriment) and even doing some of his own singing. It's a very impressive turn that even the Bohemian Rhapsody detractors enjoyed.
Related: Bohemian Rhapsody's Ending Saves A Bland Queen Movie
If there's anything holding Malek back from breaking into the top five right now, it's the aforementioned reception for the film. It's not going to end up on many (if any) year-end best of lists, especially those from the major awards bodies like NBR, American Film Institute, and others. Malek is going to have to overcome Bohemian Rhapsody's critical standing and transcend the consensus, meaning it will be critical for him to pick up nominations from the forthcoming precursors, like the Golden Globes and Screen Actors Guild. If he falls short there, Malek's chances of earning a nomination will be gone.
Robert Redford - The Old Man and the Gun
A Hollywood icon for decades, Redford won an Oscar for Best Director (Ordinary People), but has only earned one nomination for acting (1973's The Sting). Fox Searchlight is certainly hoping to add one more to Redford's résumé, hoping his performance as aging bank robber Forrest Tucker is enough to win over voters. The film earned positive reviews earlier this year, but it never picked up substantial traction in regards to awards. Luckily, Redford was seen as one of its strongest aspects, with the veteran leaning on his natural charm to bring his latest character to life. If The Old Man and the Gun is to get any Oscars attention, Redford represents its best chance.
Though the actor has since backtracked somewhat on this sentiment, the popular belief was that The Old Man and the Gun would be his final onscreen performance, a tremendous narrative for Oscar voters to capitalize on. What better way to honor Redford's lasting legacy than to have him in contention for his first Best Actor win? He could sneak into the race on sentiment alone, but the Best Actor field is typically stacked with lots of other worthy performances hoping to get in. Hopefully for Redford's sake, The Old Man and the Gun doesn't slide under the radar and his name gets called on nominations morning.
Clint Eastwood - The Mule
Coincidentally, there's another film this year about a senior citizen who gets caught up in a life of crime. We speak of The Mule, Eastwood's latest directorial effort that also sees him star as Earl Stone, a horticulturist who becomes a drug smuggler for the Mexican cartel. Like Redford, Eastwood is a previous Oscar winner, but never for acting. He actually has four Academy Awards on his mantle, two Best Directors and two Best Pictures (for Unforgiven and Million Dollar Baby). Eastwood was nominated in Best Actor for both of those films, but obviously lost out.
Related: Watch The Trailer For The Mule
Eastwood is another veteran who frequently flirts with retirement (this is his first main role since 2012's Trouble With the Curve), so the Academy may not have many chances left to give him recognition in this category. If Eastwood is to earn a Best Actor nod, The Mule will need to be of exceptionally high quality. His filmography has become somewhat erratic in recent years; for every American Sniper, there's a 15:17 to Paris or J. Edgar and The Mule sped through the pipeline (it was in production this summer). Warner Bros. is also behind A Star is Born, which is the clear juggernaut of the season. The studio won't want to split votes, so they're going to prioritize Cooper's movie and not give The Mule much of a push. Eastwood will need to impress big time.
Willem Dafoe - At Eternity's Gate
One of the industry's most respected and accomplished thespians, Dafoe is beginning to build an overdue narrative for himself. He's earned three acting nominations so far, with the most recent coming last year for The Florida Project. Many presumed he was the frontrunner, before Sam Rockwell's performance in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri dominated the season. This year, Dafoe is back in At Eternity's Gate, a biopic about famous painter Vincent van Gogh. It's a meaty role for the actor to explore, and he earned exceptional reviews for his work.
The hurdle for Dafoe is that At Eternity's Gate isn't expected to be much of a contender across the board. It'll be hard for the film to attract the attention it needs in order to make a major splash. This isn't a movie on many people's radars, and Dafoe will need help from the precursors in order to work his way to Oscar night. If he continues to get shut out, then he'll have to settle for the positive reviews and hope for better luck next time.
John David Washington - BlacKkKlansman
Denzel Washington is a frequent Spike Lee collaborator, and now the auteur is making films with Denzel's son. In BlacKkKlansman, the younger Washington plays Ron Stallworth, an African-American police officer who successfully infiltrates a local chapter of the Ku Klux Klan. Lee's film was praised for its deft handle of its tricky subject matter and tone, as it found both the horror and the humor of Stallworth's situation (BlacKkKlansman is based on a true story). Washington was at the center of that, delivering a magnificent lead performance and proved he definitely has a bright future ahead of him.
The problem is that BlacKkKlansman might have peaked too early. It premiered at Cannes and was out in theaters in August. At that time, it seemed like a surefire contender for nominations across the board. Now, it isn't as much of a lock. Once the offerings from Venice, Telluride, and Toronto arrived and took over the conversation, BlacKkKlansman started to fade a bit. It's still very much in contention for now, but it needs to start picking up some steam. After being shut out by NBR, its prospects continue to slide. Time will tell, but Washington is a long shot.
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As always, our list is not meant to be all-inclusive, and these are just some of the actors hoping to hear their name called. There are several other performances that have a chance (especially now when it's still early in the race), so let us know who you're rooting for in the comments!
More: Oscars 2019 Best Picture Predictions
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